UKRAINE WAR – SANDWITCHED BETWEEN PUTIN’S BEAR’S AGRESSESONS AND US EAGLE’S ASSERTIONS

 

To understand the present full-fledged Ukraine War waged by Putin as from  24 February 2022, a brief past history of Ukraine – its Geographical and Demographics - will enhance our understanding of the present conflicts in a broader and unbiased perspective.

Ukraine of 1654 was a tiny piece of land in the middle which was expanded with 80% of its territories given by the Russians from the time of imperial Tsars (1654-1917) to Lenin (1922) to Stalin (1939-1945) with Khrushchev (1954) lastly giving Crimea to Ukraine from Russia territory even though its population was more than 60 percent Russians.

 

In the 17th century, large areas of what is now Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire. After its disintegration in 1917, the country experienced a short period of independence before the Soviet Union reclaimed it by force.

Russian history began in Kievan- Rus' more than a thousand years ago. The modern nations of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus' as their cultural ancestors, with Belarus and Russia deriving their names from it.

The Russian Orthodox religion spread from Ukraine, and Ukraine was never a foreign country to many Russians.

What divides the Ukrainians are religion and language.

Southern and Eastern Ukraine is Russian Orthodox and speaks mostly Russian.

Crimea which was annexed forcefully by Russia in February/March 2014 by Military Invasion as Russian Territory lies in Southern Ukraine. 

Eastern Ukraine is also predominantly Russian speaking population like Crimea. Another war zone due to Russian’s backed Separatists of Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively called the Donbas) are in Eastern Ukraine where battles were waged between Ukraine Army and Russian Origin Separatists with full support of Putin Army since 2014 till date. Though Ceasefires were agreed due to the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine, Russia, the DPR and the LPR on 5 September 2014 and again a second Minsk Protocol called Minsk II, on 12 February 2015, there were no end to frequent violations of ceasefires. Now Putin wants Donbas to be declared as an Independent Territory.

West Ukraine on the other hand, is geographically large in area, is predominantly Catholic and speaks Ukrainian,

After independence, the two wings of Ukrainians – West predominantly Ukrainians and East/South predominantly Russians never learned the art of compromise, but, tried to dominate one another. As a result, the extent of the Russian connection became the defining issue in politics, though they are in minority compared with majority Ukrainians.

The majority western Ukrainian side wants to link with the European Union and NATO and cut Russian ties, while the minority eastern/southern sides wants to keep Russian connections. The 2014 Orange Revolution supported by the US overthrew then Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych, prompting Putin to accept the secession of Crimea to join the Russian Confederation.

 

The subsequent separatist war in the two Eastern Ukrainian Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively called the Donbas) broke out despite the Minsk Agreements that promised to amend the Ukrainian Constitution to allow a special autonomy for the two republics, which was never put in motion.

In 2019, then Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko amended the constitution to commit the country to join the EU and NATO.

Putin has said many times that he is not going to invade Ukraine — on the condition that the US and NATO provide a written security guarantee. However, his statement in ordering the march into Ukraine to prevent the West from using the country as a springboard to invade and destroy Russia is seen by some as a reversal of his earlier statement.

The current conflict is not just an issue of typical war between two countries- Ukraine and Russia. The delicate nature of the relationship between the two countries likely triggered Putin's decision to attack when he felt Ukraine and NATO were not responding to his publicly announced demand including implementation of the Minsk Agreement as fighting resumed in Donetsk and Luhansk.

If a country has a powerful neighbor sharing common cultural, language and religious heritage with some groups, learning how to live with each other is indispensable for the country's long-term survival or risk the internal conflict escalating to war between countries.

NATO, the EU and the US refused to discuss security guarantees for Russia. Hence, the Russian force is closing in on the capital city, Kyiv, just one day after hostility started. This is an ominous sign showing the Ukrainian defense is ineffective in the Russian attack, despite US and NATO arming it.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy President of Ukraine Age 44 years - is a Ukrainian politician, and former actor and comedian, who is the sixth and current president of Ukraine.  Volodymyr Zelenskyy with no prior political experience has become the sixth President of Ukraine, scoring a record 73.22% of the popular vote. 

Zelenskyy is the first Jewish President of Ukraine.

If one wants to respect Democracy, Zelenskyy who was elected overwhelmingly by the Ukrainian Voters needs to be respected and accepted.

But Putin wants Zelenskyy to be another puppet politician, but, he was leaning towards West, US and NATO much to the despair and disappointment of Putin.

Majority of Ukrainians wants Democracy and Western Type of Government and they do not trust Putin or Dictatorial Russian Regime. Interference by Putin in the internal matters of Ukraine becomes conflicts between Western Majority Ukrainians and South/West Separatists Russians.

1. The tensions mounted during the 2004 presidential election in Ukraine, with Moscow throwing all of its weight behind the pro-Russia candidate, Viktor Yanukovych. The country's "Orange Revolution" 

prevented him from assuming office. The election was declared fraudulent and the pro-Western candidate, Viktor Yushchenko became president.  Russia responded by cutting off gas shipments to Ukraine on two occasions, in 2006 and 2009, and also interrupted shipments into the EU.

2. In November 2013, Euromaidan Protests erupted, as President Yanukovych had taken a sudden decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU). He was for closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.

The Ukrainian parliament had overwhelmingly approved of finalizing the agreement with the EU. Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it.

3. The Revolution of Dignity also known as the Maidan Revolution, took place in Ukraine in February 2014 at the end of the Euromaidan protests, when deadly clashes between protesters and the security forces in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv culminated in the ousting of elected President Viktor Yanukovych – (Pro – Russian - After the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, Viktor Yanukovych abandoned his office and fled the country. He was subsequently impeached) - and the overthrow of the Ukrainian government. 

4. In March 2014, immediately following the Euromaidan protest movement and subsequent Revolution of Dignity, protests by pro-Russian, anti-government separatist groups took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the Donbas. These demonstrations began around the same time as Russia's annexation of Crimea, and were part of wider pro-Russian protests across southern and eastern Ukraine. Declaring the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR, respectively), armed Russian-backed separatist groups seized government buildings throughout the Donbas, leading to armed conflict with the Ukrainian government forces.

Ukraine launched a military counter-offensive against pro-Russian forces in April 2014, called the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO) from 2014 until 2018, when it was renamed the "Joint Forces Operation" (JFO). Russia under the pretext of defending the Separatists forces, Russia crossed the border calling their move as a ‘Humanitarian Convey’.

Russian crossings reportedly occurred both in areas that were controlled by pro-Russian forces and those that were not, such as the south-eastern part of Donetsk Oblast, near Novoazovsk. Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, called the events of 22 August 2014 a "direct invasion by Russia of Ukraine", while other Western and Ukrainian officials called it a Russian "stealth invasion".

As a result of the Russian invasion, DPR and LPR insurgents regained much of the territory they had lost during the Ukrainian government's preceding military offensive.

Much to the annoyance of Putin, Ukraine continued to increase its cooperation with NATO, deploying the third-largest contingent of troops to Iraq in 2004, and dedicating peacekeepers to NATO missions such as the ISAF force in Afghanistan and KFOR in Kosovo.

In September 2013, Russia warned that if Ukraine entered a planned free trade agreement with the European Union, it would face financial catastrophe and possibly the collapse of the state.

Russia warned Ukraine that it would no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Russia.

Why does the US support Ukraine?

The United States reaffirms its unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters. The U.S.-Ukraine relationship serves as a cornerstone for security, democracy, and human rights in Ukraine and the broader region.

USSR - Union of Soviet Socialist Republics – or simply Soviet Union – was a union of 15 republics and it was disintegrated with 14 republics becoming independent countries leaving Russia in Soviet Union. With this disintegration of Soviet Union, Warsaw Pact of 1955 – a creation of Soviet Union for a political and military alliance with Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania was also came to an end.

In September 1990, East Germany quit the Warsaw Pact to be reunited with West Germany (which is a signatory of NATO) followed by Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland. And the Warsaw pact was officially disbanded in early 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union itself.

This had created a great opportunity for NATO to pull former Warsaw Pact Countries into its fold and hence Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland joined the alliance in 1999 and in 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined the NATO. Further, Albania and Croatia signed to join NATO in 2009 followed by Montenegro and in 2020 North Macedonia.

Such Move by NATO created alarms to the Russians. When in 2008 NATO Allies welcomed Ukraine and Georgia, Kremlin had this move as an open threat on the Russia’s security. 

Ukraine is considered to hold strong historic ties first to the Soviet Union and then Russia. This development prompted Putin to warn US that no Russian Leader could stand idly by in the face of steps towards NATO membership for Ukraine and that would be a hostile act towards Russia.

US in February 1990 had given an assurance to Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev that there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east. But, NATO had not kept up its words and had brought almost all erstwhile Warsaw Pact Countries into its fold much to the discomfort of Russia.

In 2008, following NATO announcement of its intent to admit Georgia and Ukraine into its alliance, Russia invaded Georgia and took control of several of its territorial regions and in 2014 with Ukraine drifting closer towards an economic alliance with the European Union, Russia marched into Ukraine and seized Crimea.

Russia wants a legally enforceable promise from the US that NATO forces will not conduct any military operations in eastern Europe, especially in Ukraine. According to the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is merely a puppet of the US and was never a real sovereign country in the first place.

India is also suggesting for a diplomatic solution, through talks to the present Russian-Ukraine violent conflict.

Now let us know the pulse of Ukraine Public.

The survey results showed that 80% of Ukrainians nationally and 73% of people living in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts supported that the separatist-controlled areas should remain part of Ukraine.

Putin’s comments during a televised address recently questioned the very existence of Ukraine, and he said it was “madness” that other former Soviet republics were allowed to leave the USSR. It was in response to these remarks that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the British Parliament that Putin had “flagrantly violated” the Minsk Agreements by recognizing the “supposed independence” of Donetsk and Luhansk. Johnson further said that Putin’s “inflammatory speech” had denied that Ukraine had any “tradition of genuine statehood” and “hurled numerous other false accusations and aspersions”.

Putin’s Demands:

Kremlin - Moscow demands the following to stop the war in a moment:

1.      Ukraine cease military action

2.      Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality

3.      Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory

Recognise the separatist republics of Donets and Luhansk as independent states. 

Even in Russia, on the calls of imprisoned Russian Opposition Leader Lexei Navalny, over 5000 Russians in 60 cities came out in protests in the Street of Russia against Putin’s attack on Ukraine.

Some Silver Lining of Mellowed and Practical voice of President Volodymyr Zelensky may help to defuse the Ukraine War, as he announced now that he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia’s stated reasons for invading its pro-western neighbor.

He further explained that he is open to compromise on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24.

 INDIA’S STAND:

TS Tirumurti, India’s permanent representative to the United Nations, said during an emergency session of the UN Security Council convened by Ukraine recently that the Minsk Agreements still provide the basis for a negotiated and peaceful settlement to the crisis in eastern Europe and that all parties need to make “greater efforts to find common ground” to facilitate the implementation of the pacts.

TS Tirumurti, said during an emergency session of the Security Council  that all parties should exercise “utmost restraint” while enhancing diplomatic efforts to find a “mutually amicable solution” that takes into account the “legitimate security interests of all countries”. India has so far refrained from any criticism of Russia’s actions along the border with Ukraine. 

The reference to the security interests of all countries is an apparent nod to Russia’s demand for security guarantees vis-a-vis NATO.

Given that Russia is a crucial supplier of defence hardware for India, New Delhi’s reticence is understandable. There could also be another reason for India’s position – the strong defence and security cooperation between Ukraine and Pakistan. After all, India’s decision to acquire T-90 tanks from Russia was largely spurred by the supply of T-80UD tanks to Pakistan by Ukraine. In 2020, Ukraine bagged a contract for repairing Pakistan’s Il-78 air-to-air refueling aircraft and Pakistan’s envoy in Ukraine has been a former military officer for more than a decade.

Conclusion:

Putin’s Fear of NATO’s attacks of Russia is far fletched and not real. Hence his attack on a Democratically Elected Government is to be condemned and Putin should be made responsible for all the deaths and sufferings of people due to his inhuman military invasions all of a sudden. His reasoning of sending military into Ukraine as "humanitarian convoy" due to the appeals from Russian Separatists of Donets and Luhansk (collectively called the Donbas) is most unconvincing and confused statement.

Putin had not confined his attacks within Donbas, but Red Army had  attacked Ukraine from the north, east and south, pounding cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv and the port of Mariupol from February 24 2022.

Neutrality Stand taken by Modi Government, though blamed as Selfish Diplomacy, is the best step considering our priorities to bring back our students of more than 20,000 from war zones to India.

It is equally worth recording that both Putin and Zelensky are trusting Modi more than any other political leader which goes to prove the success of our diplomacy and most likely, there will be truce between the two waring countries.

LET THERE BE PEACE.

E-Touch feels that Putin is guilty of invasion of a democratically elected government for the simple reason the present President Zelensky is not ready to tow his footsteps. Putin is also guilty of starting a war unitarily resulting in the deaths, exodus of large population from Ukraine to neighboring countries as refugees and also evacuations of many stranded students to their countries.

E-Touch wants to punish Putin by crowing him with a crown of thorns and also presenting a whip for his self-whipping.