MODI – 3 - COALITION POLITICS






Modi had the luxury of Coalition free rules in 2014 and 2019 with BJP having full majorities of 282 and 303 seats respectively. But the present 2024 Lok Sabha election, BJP could win only 240 seats which is short by 32 seats of the halfway mark of 272 seats throwing heavy burden and challenge on Modi resulting in coalition politics.

The details of seats won by NDA headed by BJP and by INDIA bloc headed by Congress are tabulated below:


Many BJP supporters including E-Touch were disheartened, as BJP alone could not win at least 272 seats in Modi’s third term as well so that Modi could rule Bharat without any coalition compulsions. 

But a careful study of the seats won by BJP   + and Congress + gives an interesting and intelligent positions both for the two parties.

The position is classically expressed in a post which reads as under:

 

On the lighter note (Courtesy: S. Shankar), the readers can have some laughs and relief after reading the message below:

“Outcome and analysis of this election:

BJP - we are happy because again we are the largest party.

Congress-we are happy because our seats are doubled.

SP-we are happy because our excellent performance in UP.

TDP-We are happy because we are forming state government and we will be the part of central Government.

TMC-We are happy because we stopped BJP in WB.

JDU-we are happy because we will be part of central Government and will edge.

EVM-we are happy because no one will blame me.

Election commission-we are happy because no one will blame us and no more press conference required.

And

Kejriwal -I am happy because now my sugar is under control.

Public is also happy as good opportunity to buy because of market crash!

Rare election where everyone is happy. 😃”

And now the data below will make you to stand up from your seat and exclaim “CHEERS MODI JI! YOU DID IT”: 

In 35 years, no party apart from the BJP has won more than 232 seats. Please view Infographic below: 



Hence Indian People’s Verdict had estopped INDIA BLOC headed by Congress from blaming the EVM/VVPAT and the Election Commission.

All Exit Polls which predicted landslide victory for BJP with majority had terribly gone wrong much to the joy of INDIA BLOC political parties.

Now let us study whether the coalition position is fragile or strong for Modi to complete his full term of five years.

Answer is: Fragile – an Emphatic NO; Strong - an emphatic YES. 

This is based on Arithmetic with no Chemistry!

HOW?

Bench Mark is 272 Lok Sabha Seats.

BJP + is 293 with BJP alone with 240, while INDIA bloc is 233 with Congress alone with 99. It becomes a battle between 240 VS 99 and 293 VS 233. In both these scenarios BJP and NDA are winners.

Even if Chandrababu Naidu + Nitish Kumar severed NDA alliance with their total strength of 28 seats to join Congress bloc, the total seats of 261 seats of Congress bloc are still short by 11 seats of Bench Mark. Further poaching of Shiv Sena (7) and LJP (5) (Totalling 12) by Congress could not happen in view of their political ideologies – Shiv Sena opposes Uddhav Thackeray and LJP opposes Nitish Kumar. To check mate Naidu Ji’s any move to withdraw his support and joining Congress bloc, his arch rival Jagan with his 4 seats is there ever ready to support NDA.

Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar had previously deserted NDA alliance and had felt bad about their own decisions thereafter. Further Nitish Kumar had gone on records that he will hereafter never leave NDA and there is nothing on records to disprove his statement.

Above all, BJP’s 240 is no match for Congress’s 99 apart from major hurdles in deciding who will be Prime Ministerial candidate and their sharing of ministerial berths and common minimum programme etc. for Congress bloc.

Already there is a news item indicating that out of 17 non-allied MPs, 10 were ready to support NDA. 




Hence Naidu Ji and Kumar Ji may bargain with BJP for ministerial berths but they will in all probability not leave NDA. Further Naidu Ji will become CM and a good rapport with the centre becomes a necessity to run the State for full five years. In the recently held Andhra Assembly election, Congress could not win even a single seat. 

Major casualties in the coalition politics for Modi will be to waste time and energy to discuss with alliance partners to implement various schemes. Modi, with his vast experiences, could find solutions to all coalition hurdles, when faced and hence Modi will successfully complete his full five-year terms as PM. 




BJP’s success in capturing power in Odisha ending 24 long years of Naveen Patnaik is a great feat. Above all, Naveen Patnaik, who ruled Odisha for 24 years in five consecutive terms as CM, was defeated by BJP candidate Laxman Bag –a commoner former daily wager securing around 91,000 votes as against Naveen’s 75,000 votes in Kantabanji Assembly Segment with a victory margin of 16,000. Unbelievable and shocking defeat at the end of his political career. That is Politics and Election! 



And further BJP had retained Arunachal Pradesh with 46 seats out of 60 for third consecutive terms. No Anti-Incumbency factor was felt in the results. 

In Kerala BJP had won one Lok Sabha seat for the first time and thereby it made history in opening its account. Congress in Kerala had won 14 seats out of 20, while the ruling CPM got just 1 seat like BJP.

The main reasons for BJP’s failure to cross half way mark of 272 seats in Lok Sabha are:

1.   In UP, BJP could win just 33, while SP – 37 and Congress 6.

2.   Similarly in Maharashtra, BJP + could win 18 whereas Congress + won 30.

Overall performance by BJP in the Assembly elections were exemplary, while that of Lok Sabha Elections were quite good – considering the facts it is Modi’s third term and anti-incumbency factors had to be overcome.

One lurking doubt emerged and E-Touch wants to highlight the same.

When NDA had secured a majority in Lok Sabha election, why Congress Bloc expects Naidu Ji and Kumar Ji to desert BJP to join their bloc? Is it not against political ethics and democratic principles to value and accept people’s verdicts as such?

But to the shock and surprise of E-Touch, none – no media and no press had objected to such moves by Congress bloc which speak volumes about their low value systems. Because Medias were kept at a distance for the last 10 years by Modi JI without any undue favours and perks for them thereby earning their ire and unjust criticism.

Bharat can be proud in MODI 3, as almost all Presidents/Prime Ministers of countries in the west, east, south, and north of the world including Arab Countries had congratulated Modi for his victory. But alas! None from the Congress +!   Such an attitude of the Opposition Political Parties is an unhealthy and undemocratic and above all insult to the voters who favoured NDA.

MODI -3 will become a reality on June 9 with his swearing function.

E-Touch prays Almighty God for Modi Ji’s successful rule as PM to make Bharat GREAT IN ALL RESPECTS AND FULLY SELF RELIANT AND DEVELOPED.

E-Touch also prays Almighty God for BJP’s Allies to be reliable and supportive partners in making Bharat - A GREAT NATION IN ALL RESPECTS. 



E-TOUCH PRESENTS MODI JI WITH A BOUQUET FOR HIS SUCCESS IN LOK SABHA ELECTION 2024 AND WISH MODI JI ALL SUCCESS IN HIS VISION TO MAKE OUR BHARAT FULLY DEVELOPED IN ALL RESPECTS. 

JAI HO! MODI JI.

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