AN IN-DEPTH STUDY OF ELECTION RESULTS OF MAHARASHTRA AND HARAYANA

Maharashtra State Assembly Election 2019:

The BJP – Shiv Sena alliance won 161 seats in total which is 16 seats more than the half-way mark of 145 seats to form the government.  BJP won 105 Seats  and Shiv Sena 56 seats  in the recently held Maharashtra  Assembly Eletion 2019.

In 2014 Assembly election the position was BJP 122 seats whereas Shiv Sena 62 seats totaling 184 seats. Hence the fall of seats was 23 seats. One should note that in 2014 BJP and Sena fought each other and forged alliance only after the election results, whereas there was pre-poll alliance in this election of 2019.

Party	In 2019	In 2014	Difference	Remarks
BJP	105	122	(- 17)	In Alliance with Shiv-Sena
Shiv- Sena	56	62	( - 6)	No Alliance with Shiv-Sena
Congress	44	42	( + ) 2	No  Alliance with NCP
National Congress Party	54	41	(+ 13	In Alliance with Congress

In 2014, BJP contested 270+ seats and won 122 seats, while in 2019 BJP contested only 150 seats and won 105 seats – which is 70% in 2019 and 45% in 2014.

In 2019, SS contested 123 seats and won 56 seats – down by 6 seats compared to 2014 election and it works out to 45% only as against the tremendous striking rate of BJP’s 70%.

Hence 17 decreased seats for BJP in this election might have been averted, if the BJP fought the election solely without SS alliance. This might have made BJP to accommodate many candidates thereby averting many aspirants contesting elections against official BJP candidates– some of them winning and some of them affecting the prospects of winning for BJP candidates.

The position of Congress and NCP is as under:

In 2019, Congress and NCP had forged an alliance and fought the election together winning 44 and 54 which had improved their seats by 2 for Congress and 13 for NCP as compared with the seats won in 2014.  Hence NCP had performed extremely well as compared with Congress.

But, if we dig deep into the results, the BJP and even Sena cannot gloat over their performance considering only seats secured and votes’ percentage.

The following factors will show how the BJP/Sena had suffered due to their miscalculations and selection of candidates and accommodating last minute defectors from Congress/NCP.

1. A total of nine prominent Maharashtra ministers lost in the Maharashtra Assembly Election Results 2019. Two cabinet ministers and seven ministers of state failed to win in the assembly election. Pankaja Munde, who is the Minister for Rural Development and Women and Child Welfare, lost to her estranged cousin Dhanajay Munde by a margin of almost 30,000 votes. It was a shocker for late BJP leader Gopinath Munde's daughter.  Another major upset was witnessed in Karjat-Jamkhed, when Ram Shinde,  Minister of Ahmednagar and Water Conservation Minister, lost to NCP's Rohit Pawar by a margin of over 40,000 votes. In Maval constituency, Sanjay Bhegade, Minister of State for Labour, Environment, Relief and Rehabilitation, lost to NCP's Sunil Shelke by a margin of 95,000 votes.

Cabinet minister Jaydutt Kshirsagar, fighting on Shiv Sena ticket from Beed, was defeated by his nephew and NCP candidate Sandeep Kshirsagar.

2. Vaibhav Pichad, who moved over from NCP to Shiv Sena before the elections, lost to NCP's Kiran Lahamate.

At least 19 out of 35 defectors who left Congress and NCP to join Shiv Sena and BJP lost from their respective constituencies.

3. A large number of voters in Maharashtra opted to vote for NOTA or none of the above. In Latur (rural), Congress candidate Dhiraj Vilasrao Deshmukh emerged victorious, but the second highest number of votes went to NOTA (27,287 votes). In Palus-Kadegaon assembly seat, Congress's Kadam Vishwajeet Patangrao won but NOTA emerged as its main competitor with 20,631 votes. In Borivali constituency, more than 10,000 people voted in favour of NOTA. There are several other assembly seats where a large number of people opted to vote NOTA.

4. The Sena may have proved its dominance in Mumbai but suffered a huge embarrassment as it lost Bandra East, which is home to Thackeray residence Matoshree. Shiv Sena candidate and Mumbai Mayor Vishwanath Mahadeshwar lost to Congress's Zeeshan Siddique.

5. The NCP's dominance is one of the reasons why BJP-Sena alliance failed to secure a landslide victory in the state. Sharad Pawar's party fought valiantly and secured 54 seats in the state. It is worth noting that NCP has maintained its stronghold in Western Maharashtra, where it won 28 seats.

6. Another Interesting factor is that Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena could win only a single seat as it did in 2014. MNS's Pramod Raju Ratan Patil won the only seat from the party from Kalyan Rural as he defeated Shiv Sena's Ramesh Mhatre by a margin of 6,000 votes.

Now let us know about Vote Share Statistics in 2019 State Election:

•BJP polled 6 lakh less votes, vote share dipped by 2 percentage points

•Shiv Sena got 12 lakh less votes, vote share dipped by 3 percentage points

•NCP and Congress too suffered loss in vote share compared to 2014 Maharashtra election.

Still BJP – Sena Alliance had got enough seats to form the Government – but, Sena seems to be blocking the way by demanding rotation CM and 50:50 Cabinet Berths which were rejected by the BJP as of now. In the mean time, Sena was seen approaching NCP and Congress to form the Government ditching BJP. But in all probability this might not happen.

All 13 Independent Candidates  seem to be ready to back BJP. Even in Shiv Sena, there seems to be opposition to form the government with the support of NCP and Congress.  Most probably, BJP may form a minority Government with the support of available Independents and seek vote of confidence wherein NCP or even Shiv Sena may abstain to save the Government from fall, as no one will be willing to face the election again. Again it is very much doubtful whether Congress which is proud of its ‘secular’ credentials will support Shiv Sena whose hard core theology is Hindutva – more aggressive than even BJP. Further Shiv Sena has to face ire of party cadres, in case if Sena aligns with Congress – and such a scenario will paint that legacy of its founder Bal Thackery has been given up for sake of power and position.

It was a historic feat that Fadnavis became a first CM to complete 5 year tenure in 47 years in the history of Maharashtra politics and he was its 23rd CM. He will be only the second Chief Minister from Maharashtra after Vasantrao Naick to achieve this feat.

Haryana State Assembly Election 2019:

Party	In 2019	In 2014	Difference	Remarks
BJP	40	47	(-) 7
Congress	31	15	(+) 16
Jannayak Janta Party	-	10	(+) 10	New Party started only in 2018
Independents	7	19	(-) 12

Congress performance is really excellent considering the fact that Rahul or Priyanka or Sonia had not campaigned in Haryana leaving the entire campaign to Bhupinder Singh Hooda – Ex Chief Minister from 2005 to 2014 and hence the entire credits should go to Hooda.  Actually Rahul was against Hooda to be given full charge of Congress Party’s Haryana Assembly Election even Hooda threatening to leave Congress and to start his own new party.

The Congress bagged 28.10% votes winning 31 seats, a sharp jump from 20.58% in 2014, when it had won just 15 seats in Haryana and more than 50% jump in seats won in the current election.

In the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had secured 28.42% votes in Haryana but failed to open its account, as the BJP had won all 10 Lok Sabha Seats in 2019. Kindly note that Congress Vote Share had not undergone any change, but, it could double its assembly seats because of its increased vote share of around 8% compared to its election results of 2014 and 2019.

The new entry of Jannayak Janta Party under the young leader Dushyant Chautala in 2018 only had won 10 seats thereby becoming a King Maker.

The BJP lost 7 seats compared to last election. Out of 7 Independents won, 5 are BJP rebels who were denied BJP tickets and they had come forward to support the BJP in government formation apart from JJP which had thwarted Hooda to form Congress Government with the support of JJP + Independents.

Modi had observed about the election results thus:

“At a time when it is rare that state governments return to power, people of Haryana and Maharashtra have yet again given the mandate in favour of BJP. Although both chief ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar were new, the state government served the people with honesty, and worked for the development of people. In Haryana, BJP had increased its vote share by 3 percentage point in comparison to 2014 assembly polls. In 2014, BJP had got 33% votes but in 2019 the vote share is 36%.”

The BJP anyhow emerged as the single largest party and formed the government in a post-poll alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party and 7 Independent MLAs. BJP’s Manohar Lal Khattar and JJP President Dushyant Chautala were sworn in as Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister respectively of BJP-JJP Alliance Government. In the previous election in 2014, the BJP won a majority and ended the 10 year rule of the Congress Government in the State and Manohar Lal Khattar became the Chief Minister.

In short, Haryana Assembly Election Results had resulted in giving equal joys and sorrows to both the BJP and Congress – but slightly more Joy to BJP than Congress, as the BJP had once again formed the government – that too with increased majority of 57 seats with JJP and Independents alliance.

Let me end up the analysis with the quote of Netizens:

BJP Celebrating - Shiv Sena Celebrating - NCP celebrating - Congress Celebrating!

What an Positive Election!

Even Election Commission celebrating as No One Blaming EVM now!

Tail – Piece:

In 2019 BJP-Shiva Sena had 161 seats in Maharashtra elections.

In 2009 Congress-NCP alliance formed the government with 144 and in 2004 with 140.

Yet no one called 2009/2004 results a moral victory for BJP/Shiv Sena.

What has changed in how elections are viewed in India?

Supplementary Information about 51 Assembly Bye Election Results:

BJP + won 26 Assembly Seats – Congress won 12 seats.

Especially in UP, out of 11 total assembly seats, BJP won 7 and Congress drew blank – though Priyanka was in charge of UP.

One Analyst remarked:

The bye-election results trends to indicate that the outcome is for Pro-Incumbency.